It is true that the Yemeni economy was not particularly strong before March 2015; however, many Yemenis harbored natural and reasonable hopes for a better future. The majority relied on various jobs in both the public and private sectors, where employment opportunities were available despite the corruption that often accompanied their distribution. Moreover, certain revenue-generating ministries and oil companies, for instance, were viewed as golden targets for some ambitious individuals.
The Economy of Real Estate and Currency Exchange
After March 2015, the situation drastically changed. The war caused significant damage to both the public and private sectors. The paralysis that afflicted state institutions led to the interruption of salaries for government and public sector employees. Additionally, political shifts and changes were the primary reason for the replacement of many employees in this sector, which also resulted in the deterioration of the private sector, exposing it to substantial harm. Consequently, many companies laid off employees, while others reduced their workforce, and some even faced bankruptcy and closure.
“Each time, the situation grew more complex, leaving Yemenis with no choice but to focus on whatever might help them endure each new crisis. No sooner would they emerge from one challenge than another, shrouded in uncertainty, would arise. In this regard, I find myself—along with 30 million other Yemenis—asking: What might the Yemeni economy look like in the next five years, and how will the private sector recover?”
As a result of these circumstances, some Yemenis resorted to spending their savings and selling their assets and land. Others became entirely dependent on remittances sent by relatives working abroad. Hence, this shift dramatically altered the structure of the economy and changed people's sources of livelihood. Those who possessed capital at the time took advantage and benefited from the decline in real estate prices, viewing property as a safe haven to invest. Consequently, the informal economy that emerged due to these changes led many to lose trust in banks, official institutions, and companies, shaping what I refer to as the " Economy of Real Estate and Currency Exchange Shops."
Moreover, this shift coincided with a notable increase in humanitarian and relief projects by international organizations and civil society groups, which created numerous job opportunities and positively impacted various sectors. For instance, companies providing services to these organizations, along with suppliers and many others, benefited from this development, which contributed to a partial improvement in the overall situation.
I believe this improvement is what has encouraged many young people to embark on entrepreneurial ventures, some of which have achieved remarkable successes. As a result, we have seen many of these success stories shared widely on social media.
A Bleak Landscape Clouding Hopes
However, by 2022, we began to hear many voices complaining of stagnation and a decline in trade activity. I believe that many people have felt this impact across all levels of society.
Actually, there are many interpretations that explain the slight improvement observed from 2018 to 2022. However, I believe the primary reason lies in the role of international organizations, whose project momentum in Yemen diminished following the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022. Subsequently, there was a noticeable shift in international aid funds toward Ukraine, leading to a reduction in the budgets of many international organizations operating in Yemen. This, in turn, resulted in a decrease in projects, staff numbers, and the number of beneficiaries served by their programs.
We must also not overlook the stance of the Sana'a authorities regarding the events of October 7, 2023, which many believe further complicated the situation within the country. Consequently, many individuals returned to offering their assets for sale once again, but this time with a significant increase in supply and a near-total lack of demand.
Future Concerns and Questions
Throughout these stages and changes that Yemenis have experienced since March 2015, there have been many moments of hope for political breakthroughs and rapprochements that could alleviate their suffering.
However, each time, the situation grew more complex, leaving Yemenis with no choice but to focus on whatever might help them endure each new crisis. No sooner would they emerge from one challenge than another, shrouded in uncertainty, would arise. In this regard, I find myself—along with 30 million other Yemenis—asking: What might the Yemeni economy look like in the next five years? How will the private sector recover, and how will entrepreneurs, whose businesses have deteriorated due to the current circumstances, regain their footing?
Furthermore, where will the workforce that has lost its sources of income turn? What will the future landscape of income sources look like in Yemen in the near term?
Are There Signs of Hope?
The answer to this question remained grim as of last July. The battle that took place between the Aden and Sana'a governments left many feeling disheartened. As the battle intensified between the Central Bank in Aden and the Central Bank in Sana'a, there was widespread anticipation of renewed clashes on multiple fronts. However, even amidst the escalating tensions and threats, there were reports of a de-escalation from all these confrontations, along with promising signs of rapprochement emerging at the same time —a scene that resembles the wild fluctuations seen in the cryptocurrency market!
In the end, we hope that there will be genuine will and intention among the conflicting parties in Yemen to emerge from this catastrophic situation. As a young Yemeni, I truly do not know whether the signs of rapprochement we occasionally witness are truly hopeful developments or merely well-crafted traps set by the warring factions, waiting to ensnare us at every turn.
