Nine days have passed since the warring parties in Yemen agreed to conclude a two-month armistice, which included some important humanitarian measures, specifically the entry of 18 fuel vessels into the sea port of Hodeidah.
In addition to operating two commercial flights per week, to and from Sana'a airport, and holding a meeting between the parties to agree on major public issues including opening blocked roads in Taiz and other governorates, to facilitate freedom of movement for civilians in Yemen.
Many, including the UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, consider that the truce, which is first in Yemen at the country level in six years, is a precious moment but it is also vulnerable. For more than seven years, Yemenis have suffered unimaginable loss, and unbelievably difficult life conditions.
The conflict left scars on every aspect of life, identifiable in markets, roads, schools, courts, hospitals and homes.
Grundberg stressed that this truce offers a small, but important, window through which to begin reversing the difficult course of reality. It must be emphasized that building on the armistice agreement to support the Yemenis in forging a path towards peace is a joint responsibility that falls on the parties, the countries of the region, the United Nations and the international community.
In a press conference held on Wednesday, April 6, the UN envoy to Yemen confirmed that the success of many of the next steps will depend on those parties, and the agreement would not have been possible without the support of these actors.
"That moment represented a rare opportunity in a long and brutal war to make progress on a political solution". He said. This means that the parties must engage in good faith, constructively, and without preconditions, in a genuine dialogue about ending the conflict. A cease-fire rarely succeeds unless accompanied by progress on the political track. Believing that Yemenis are united in their desire to maintain, renew and strengthen the truce as a step towards peace.
Two months' trial period
Grundberg reviewed the developments of the situation since the start of the armistice, as there was a significant decrease in the level of violence, but there are some frequent reports indicating the presence of some hostile military activities around Marib, and these actions represent a source of concern.
Economists and observers assert that addressing the economic crisis requires a political peace agreement between the parties to the war and conflict as a prerequisite and necessary foundation to move the wheel of economic and development progress.
The UN envoy revealed that a coordination mechanism has been established in order to maintain open channels of communication between the parties and help them prevent or calm and manage accidents if they occur, in support of their commitment to stop all hostile military operations and freeze their positions.
As part of the armistice, the internationally recognized government allowed two oil derivatives ships to enter Hodieda port, and two other ships were allowed to enter on Wednesday, April 6, in addition to the ongoing preparations to launch the first flight from Sanaa Airport, and preparations are being made for a meeting between the parties to agree on opening the blocked roads in Taiz and other governorates.
According to Grundberg, this truce is an important step, but at the same time it is also fragile, stressing the significance to make the best use of this opportunity offered by the truce to work towards ending the conflict, as these two months will be a test of the parties' commitment to reach a peaceful solution to the conflict that takes priority The Yemeni people and their needs.
It will not be possible to reach a peaceful, just and sustainable solution to the conflict through the battlefield, but rather through dialogue. Ending the war was, and still is, one of the consistent messages that appeared in his dialogues and consultations, and these consultations will soon resume, and continue until the end of next May. Its aim is to enrich the framework on which it is working, including the multi-track process that will address immediate and long-term needs and priorities, to help reach a political settlement to end the conflict in a manner that responds to the aspirations of the Yemeni people.
Urgent arrangements
In the same context, experts and observers affirm that dealing with the economic crisis requires a political peace agreement between the parties to the war and conflict as a prerequisite and necessary to move the wheel of economic and development activity.
Dr. Mutahar al-Abbasi, the economic expert and former Deputy Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, believes that the consensus on the neutralization of the economy and the neutrality of sovereign economic institutions, such as the Central Bank and the ministries of Finance, Oil and minerals, Planning and International Cooperation, is a necessity required by any political agreement for peace.
In addition, urgent measures and arrangements shall be in place to preserve Yemen’s sovereign rights of oil and gas, this includes reviewing gas sales contracting agreements in accordance with international market prices, and entering into serious negotiations for the pricing of the gas sales unit to ensure maximizing its revenues to support the state budget and the provision of foreign exchange reserves to the Central Bank to achieve stability in the exchange rate of the riyal against foreign currencies.
Further, Al-Abbasi points to the significance of the technical coordination between specialists in the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation in Sanaa and Aden, to prepare a phased development program for the period 2023-2025, targeting economic recovery and reconstruction to address the urgent humanitarian needs of the displaced and families affected by the war and its repercussions.
For his part, the former minister in the Yemeni government, Raafat Al-Akhali, believes that with the advent of the month of Ramadan and the start of the announced truce, a number of the most important economic remedies must be worked quickly in order to reach a “truce with hunger,” as Mr. Ahmed Ghaleb called it. Governor of the Central Bank of Aden.
Because of the state of collapse facing all sectors in light of the current situation in Yemen, those involved in the industry and decision-making are often paralyzed by the long and complex lists of problems, challenges and possible solutions.
According to Al-Akhali, there is an important principle, called the Pareto Principle or the (80-20 rule), which states that we can achieve 80% of desired results if we focus on the most important 20% of treatments. From this standpoint, he believes that focus should be placed on a set of urgent and short-term priorities, which include resuming the export of liquefied gas, and implementing urgent treatments for the black hole, which is the electricity sector that drains the available resources, in addition to finding solutions to the existing division in institutions and monetary and financial policies between Sana’a and Aden. Therefore, it is necessary to urgently work on mechanisms to mitigate the impact of this division.
