China, by sponsoring the Saudi-Iranian agreement, achieved an important political breakthrough in the Middle East region. So that, if it can guarantee the success of the agreement, which requires the restoration of diplomatic ties which were severed since 2016, this subsequently will result in containing the most complex crises in the region and the ones most threatening its security and stability. Thus, China announces its influence as a political force on the international stage and through the political role it will play in the coming period.
Moreover, China is moving in West Asia, bringing two countries with large oil and gas reserves closer together. This reinforces its strategy to secure its energy needs in the future. Besides, it also enhances China's reputation as a reliable political force that can be relied upon to resolve disputes in the region. This, in turn, not only opens the region to it but also strengthens its political presence in the other regions around the world.
Furthermore, Beijing will push with all its capabilities for the success of this agreement, and it has all the guarantees for that. In terms of its relationship with Iran, it has soft tools to influence and put pressure on it. Likewise, China is an economic outlet for Tehran in the face of global economic sanctions. Besides, the two countries have also previously signed an economic agreement under which Beijing will invest $500 billion in Iranian oil and gas, infrastructure, and economics.
“Washington has no choice but to stop the Chinese train, which is progressing with alarming smoothness. However, a direct clash is completely unlikely, not only because China is a nuclear power but also because of its economic power, which can cause an earthquake in the world.”
As it seems, Tehran will not be able to dispense with its political and economic partnership with China, unless this means choosing the West as a strategic ally and thus complying with their demands. Nevertheless, there is an important factor that contributed to Iran's approval to sign the agreement and accept the Saudi conditions, including not arming the Houthi group. The Iranian government has recently suffered from a wave of popular protests in Iranian cities. So that, the regime needs to close the conflict file with Saudi Arabia in order to pay attention to its internal affairs. In addition to a series of mysterious attacks that targeted vital military and civilian facilities. On the other hand, there are also suspicions that Israel had a direct hand in those attacks, which were confirmed by Israeli newspapers.
But in general, Iran wants to close one of the dangerous regional fronts, to deal with the threats of Israel, which is not hiding its intention to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
Exit and Obliterating Traces
Saudi Arabia, for its part, seeks to close this file, including ending the conflict in Yemen, as Iran will use its influence on the "Houthis" to push them to sign a peace agreement with Riyadh. As it seems, there will be a bilateral agreement between the two parties, according to which Riyadh will leave the Yemeni conflict that has been raging for eight years, so that it will then be only a purely Yemeni affair; that is, Saudi Arabia wants to get out of the Yemeni conflict after ensuring that there are no active Yemeni voices on the ground condemning it for its military intervention, to keep it as a purely Yemeni war, thus obliterating any traces of its military intervention.
China will not only be the focus of a Saudi-Iranian agreement but will also have a direct presence in influencing the conflict in Yemen. Thus, it confirms its effective political presence in promoting peace and stability in the areas of thorny conflicts, and this reflects its political ambition in the future. Although the question remains: How can it make breakthroughs in areas of influence closed only to the United States of America? This may push it to present itself in a positive role, in contrast to the American role, which has been involved in many conflicts and military interventions.
In this regard, it is taking gradual steps, at a moment, the West is preoccupied with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a conflict that is draining the European powers, in addition to Russia. However, the United States of America will not survive from its consequences, especially on the economic level.
When there is a major central power in the world, every rising power begins its competition by encroaching on traditional areas of influence. Is the Middle East, which is a traditional area of rivalry between the superpowers, a vital area for Beijing to declare its political ambitions?
From my point of view, Washington made a strategic mistake in the Middle East when it wanted to change the long-established bases and rules that had been established in the region since World War II. That is, re-moving stones on a patch of disturbances. The Gulf War was a historic uprising in which Washington declared its total sovereignty over the world. It did not care about the existence of a rogue state represented by the Iranian regime but gave it a free opportunity to establish its control over Iraq. This was followed by historical sayings praising a new Middle East, in which there is no place except for democracies.
On paper, this declaration raised high hopes for segments yearning for wider freedoms. But over time, it spooked the traditional allies in the region, including one of its most important allies: the Saudi regime. Washington was able to imagine the world as a vast expanse that could move its stones however it wanted. And every superpower lives in fear of relying on rigid limits to its influence because, over time, it becomes shrinkable. In order not to engage in further conflicts, it found in slogans a banner for its new penetrations to remove the threat of competition in front of it.
“It seems that Saudi Arabia has accepted the existence of a rival player in Yemen. However, this also indicates a future risks. additionally, it cannot secure the Iranian aspirations, as its ruling regime will postpone its goals pending the opportunities that arise.”
Washington also has a reason to believe that it has the power of truth “right" because it carries great values such as freedom and democracy and the expression of equal state. However, the rules for winning a political game are not always based on these meanings but rather on realistic policies. While the unique power imagined that the new world is a space for canceling and abolishing borders according to its new value concepts, including the broad rights movement that aims to grant minorities a humanitarian, political, and cultural re-consideration. So, the rules of winning in politics are not based on slogans but on pure realism.
Prospective Next Steps
What distinguishes the rising powers is that they know how to seize their opportunities and know the appropriate ways to announce their political ambitions. Since China is still confined to its territorial borders, i.e., the South China Sea, the Middle East constitutes for it an important geopolitical base on which to build its political ambitions during the coming period. However, it is coming up with soft tools to confirm that it is the appropriate global power that can fill the vacuum left by American policies in the world.
Apparently, China was waiting patiently and realistically for its opportunity, and it was not in a hurry to fill the void left behind by American policies. Because as a superpower, unlike the Cold War period, it used to act lightly from the burden of history, but now, like every superpower, it suffers with time from its own history.
Washington has no choice but to work to stop the Chinese train, which is progressing with alarming smoothness. However, a direct clash is completely unlikely, not only because China is a nuclear power but also because of its economic power, which can cause an earthquake in the world. Additionally, a nuclear conflict would also be a disaster for human existence.
which raises the question: Will America accept this situation and allow China to make a breakthrough in a vital field for it in the richest region with oil reserves? Absolutely not. But because of China's ingenuity in finding a moral loophole through which it was able to infiltrate, Will this mean that the United States will support the idea of military intervention in Iran?
Will the Saudi move pass without future punishment? For his part, the Spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State, Ned Price, said that his country supported this process at every step, which means that the United States was aware of the progress of these negotiations and China's role.
The agreement raises many questions, including whether the United States sees in the agreement a golden opportunity to launch a military strike against Iran so that Saudi Arabia will avoid the consequences of any conflict and thus limit the potential Iranian threats to the global oil supply.
“For China, the matter will not stop at the limits of the Saudi-Iranian agreement, as it is expected that it will carry out a broad normalization process in the region, under which the Bashar Al-Assad regime will restore its relationship with the countries of the region, headed by Saudi Arabia."
Regardless of that, there is no dispute that the existence of a Chinese role in the region annoys America. The steadfastness of the Saudi-Iranian agreement will mean a lot for the future of Beijing's role in the world. It will also have a significant impact on the future geopolitical and security situation of the region. Of course, this will have an impact on the situation in Yemen and, consequently, on the political arrangements and the comprehensive agreement that will result from it, as seems expected.
Apparently, Saudi Arabia has accepted the existence of a rival player in Yemen; this also indicates future risks; however, it cannot secure Iranian aspirations as its ruling regime will postpone its goals, waiting for opportunities to arise. Thus, it would be foolish for Riyadh to be assured about the consequences of the situation. But in my opinion, the two regional powers may accept a less intense neighborhood relationship. Subsequently, each side will bet on strengthening its military power, as Riyadh has expanded its relationship with China in the field of military industry.
For China, the matter will not stop at the limits of the Saudi-Iranian agreement, as it is expected that it will carry out a broad normalization process in the region, under which the Bashar Al-Assad regime will restore its relationship with the countries of the region, headed by Saudi Arabia, which will be paved by Al-Assad's statement that Saudi Arabia has not interfered in supporting any groups opposed to his regime in Syria.
Ultimately, Yemen will likely remain the scene of the cold conflict between the two parties. While the Saudi Arabia will seek not only to limit the Iranian role but also to limit a clear Emirati role in Yemen. Will the United States lose the Middle East battle with China? We can go on as It's just a round. But, at least the anti-American voices against Washington's policy on the Ukrainian file will expand in America. And let us wait for the presidential elections next year, whether it will return the Republican Party to power. Will there be an exceptional event in the history of the United States with the nomination of a former president again? that is, Donald Trump, in the electoral race?
