Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have marked a significant turning point in the region. They have altered maritime trade routes and disrupted Israel's access to goods via the Red Sea. As a result, trade routes shifted, now passing through the Cape of Good Hope at the edge of Africa. These attacks posed a real threat to the safety of global shipping, leading to the formation of an international coalition aimed at protecting vessels, known as the "Guardian of Prosperity."
An Ally as a Complicated Issue
While Houthi attacks in the Red Sea were primarily in response to Israeli aggression in Gaza, there is another factor that could influence the situation in the Red Sea: the Russian-Ukrainian war. Although the war began as a Russian attempt to seize Kyiv, it quickly evolved into a new type of Cold War, particularly with Russia's threats to supply weapons to countries hostile to Ukraine's supporters. Dmitry Medvedev, Vice Chairman of Russia's Security Council, stated that President Vladimir Putin had, for the first time, allowed the shipment of Russian weapons to regions at war with countries supplying arms to Ukraine. This statement represents a significant shift in Russian foreign policy.
The Houthis' attempt to exploit the conflict between Russia and the U.S. might lead them to acquire more advanced weapons, capable of changing the operational situation in Yemen. However, the Russian-Saudi relations could act as an obstacle to delivering advanced weapons to the Houthis.
While there are numerous parties Russia could potentially arm, this article will primarily focus on the Houthis. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have created a complex issue for the U.S., especially given that these attacks threaten the Red Sea, a crucial artery for global trade. This is particularly concerning after the Houthis claimed to possess hypersonic missiles, sparking speculations about the source of this advanced weaponry.
This coincided with U.S. accusations that Russia had been in talks with the Houthi rebel group to supply them with weapons, according to Agence France-Presse. Tim Lenderking, U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen, stated, "We don’t know if weapons are being transferred as we speak, but the matter has reached a point where we must all sound the alarm to ensure this does not happen."
Although a senior U.S. official refrained from naming specific systems, they confirmed that Russia had discussed supplying the Houthis with missiles. Speculations point toward the Yakhont missile system. However, according to seven sources cited by AFP, Russia has not yet decided to transfer the Yakhont missiles, also known as the P-800 Onyx. Experts believe these missiles would allow the Houthis to target commercial ships in the Red Sea with greater precision, thereby increasing the threat to U.S. and European warships protecting shipping lanes. If this report is accurate, it would not be the first time Russia has supplied such missiles to the Middle East, as it previously delivered them to Hezbollah. This indicates that Russia does not impose an export ban on this weapon.
Two regional officials familiar with the talks told Reuters that the Houthis and the Russians have met in Tehran at least twice this year, and discussions are ongoing to supply dozens of missiles with a range of around 300 kilometers. Additional meetings are expected to take place in Tehran in the coming weeks. Although Russia has not commented on the matter, Mohammed Abdulsalam, the spokesperson for the Houthi group, told Reuters, "We have no knowledge of what you have mentioned." The Yakhont missile is considered one of the most advanced anti-ship missiles in the world. It is designed to fly just above the surface of the sea to avoid detection, and its speed is twice the speed of sound, making it difficult to intercept.
A Game-Changer
Some reports indicate that in August, Russia backed down from sending a shipment of missiles due to pressure from Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Fabian Haines, a ballistic missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, stated that transferring Yakhont missiles to the Houthis would "change the game" regarding regional security. He added, "The capability of the P-800 is far superior to the anti-ship ballistic missiles and cruise missiles the Houthis are currently using." Haines also noted that Russia would need assistance with technical aspects of delivering the missiles, such as how to transport and operate them without the U.S. detecting and destroying them. The Houthis would also require training on the system.
In our personal opinion, the transfer of Russian missiles to the Houthis would represent a significant shift, but doing so could pose a threat to Saudi Arabia. This could lead to Russia gaining new enemies in the Middle East, a region it is seeking to solidify its presence in.
The Houthis’ attempt to exploit the Russia-U.S. conflict may provide them with more advanced weapons capable of altering the operational landscape in Yemen. However, Russian-Saudi relations may act as a stumbling block for the delivery of advanced weapons to the Houthis.
On the ground in Yemen, the warring factions do not seem ready to return to the front lines, especially since the ceasefire has been in place for nearly two and a half years. Therefore, any Russian weapons delivered to the Houthis would primarily be aimed at attacking Western interests in the Red Sea, not at threatening Saudi Arabia or creating a new reality within Yemen itself.
We do not believe that advanced Russian weapons will be used in the Red Sea unless the war escalates into a major regional conflict or there is rapid development of events. In other words, the hypersonic missiles we mentioned earlier would likely be used against U.S. and Western warships in the region once a regional war erupts. It is also possible that other Russian weapons could be deployed.
Until then, the Houthis will continue launching attacks in the Red Sea without employing any advanced Russian weaponry. It is not in Russia's interest to become embroiled in targeting U.S. military vessels at this stage.
