Numerous shifts have emerged following the announcement of the lifting of sanctions on Ahmed Ali, the son of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The number of well-wishers, flatterers, and sycophants has significantly increased. Some have extended their congratulations and praise based on political considerations that obscure more than they reveal, while others have acted out of opportunism and self-interest (offering services and superficial loyalty). On the other hand, other factions have grown wary of the potential repercussions of the man's actions, which could impact their positions on the ground, and these concerns are undoubtedly justified.
Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh is a qualified professional military figure, distinguished from his peers in the ruling power triangle until 2012 by his notable composure and the lack of circulating rumors around him as was the case with others. However, he later attracted attention, starting from 2004, when the fever of hereditary rule spread among Arab regimes (Egypt, Libya, and Yemen). While public discussions on this matter were avoided, indirect media promotions hinted at potential developments in this regard.
The voices of apprehension grew louder regarding the perils of political succession, sparking fierce competition among the offspring of the power triangle to determine who rightfully deserves the biggest slice of the pie, particularly among the descendants of the Ahmar family.
The Absurdity of Inheritance
In issue 130 of the January 2006 edition of the (Dialogue) newsletter of the Unified People's Liberation Party, an article titled "The Emergence of Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh as a Distinguished Popular Leader" was published. The article listed the exceptional leadership qualities of Ahmed Ali as if it were part of an early election campaign for both the son and the father. This coincided with the revitalization of the Liberation Front's activities on the eve of the 2006 presidential elections. The article was originally sourced from the "Voice of the Opposition" newspaper, which was established by the regime to oppose the opposition and later formed what was known as the "National Opposition Council."
This derogatory article severely damaged Ahmed Ali's reputation as a military officer and leader of the Republican Guard in the eyes of the public, rather than boosting his standing. He was not renowned for his civic or social endeavors but rather for being a respected military figure among his troops. His role in the Parliament did not significantly alter this perception, as his contributions were not particularly noteworthy. Consequently, concerns regarding the perils of political inheritance heightened, sparking a heated rivalry among the offspring of the power triangle to determine who deserves the largest share, especially from the Ahmar family's standpoint. The previous allocation of roles has become obsolete, considering the potential gains and losses at stake.
Supporters of the former president Saleh believed that by taking such actions, the successor president Abd Rabboh intentionally aimed to target Saleh and diminish his standing, even within his secure stronghold, the General People's Congress party.
The Personalization of the Revolution
The youthful uprising of 2011 ignited a fervent conflict that eventually led to the personalization of the revolution itself, reducing it to mere individual or tribal symbols that seemed disconnected from the aspirations of the people. This depersonalization stripped the revolution of its original vigor, causing disillusionment among many who gradually distanced themselves from it, particularly by the third month.
In essence, the revolution came to a practical end with an attempt at a compromise styled as "no victor, no vanquished." This arrangement aimed to distribute power equally among the political adversaries, surpassing the calls for profound systemic changes expressed through the desperate youth-led marches. These protests sought to forge a new future using the very same antiquated tools that had contributed directly to the country's existing challenges. Ultimately, as the political parties emerged as apparent winners on both sides of the divide, the broader society bore the brunt of the losses, with the promises of genuine transformation remaining largely unfulfilled.
The utilization of a direct electoral method to appoint Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi did not firmly set the course of Yemeni politics on stable tracks conducive to ushering in a new phase distinct from the past regime's practices. It seems that Hadi failed to grasp the significance of his selection as a transitional president for a specified period, concluding with a series of measures leading to competitive presidential elections that would establish a foundation for long-term stability. He appeared reluctant to assume the role of a president free from the shackles of party allegiance, enabling him to make decisions with impartiality and positivity. Instead, he chose to engage in a bitter power struggle with Saleh over the presidency of the General People's Congress, where it appeared evident that the President of the Republic should also lead the Congress. Hadi overlooked the profound changes rocking the country and failed to realize that this norm was no longer effective in the current context. Supporters of Saleh felt that by taking such actions, Abdrabbuh deliberately targeted Saleh and stripped him of his standing, even within his fortified stronghold.
The most glaring deviation occurred when Hadi issued the immunity law for President Saleh and all his associates, without requiring any reciprocal obligations from them to abstain from political activities or related endeavors.
Residues of the Two Presidents
The unexpected turn of events saw the magician's spell rebound upon himself. Rather than bolstering the country's president to achieve success in his endeavors, the General People's Congress shifted to closely scrutinize his every move. Regrettably, the circle of advisors from party leadership failed to counsel him on the critical need for maintaining neutrality, fostering fairness, and standing at an impartial distance from all factions. The Gulf Initiative itself had positioned him as the mediator between conflicting parties during times of strife, including within the House of Representatives. These leaders appeared more focused on solidifying their positions within the president's regime, aligning themselves more closely with him than with their own parties and the communities they represented. Stripped of their independence, they were incapable of correcting the numerous deviations that arose, creating a turbulent path ahead.
The biggest deviation that followed was Hadi's issuance of an immunity law for President Saleh and all those who worked with him, without any reciprocal commitments from them to refrain from engaging in political activities. This escalated the rivalry between Hadi and Saleh. They both played nearly all their cards, including tribal stubbornness, which characterized the two men due to their inability to break free from their lingering residues of the past.
This situation dealt a fatal blow to the Gulf Initiative, rendering it ineffective despite all the modifications and clarifications that stripped it of its effectiveness and purpose. As a result, the crisis intensified politically, militarily, and economically, affecting all corners of the country, weakening it and eroding its ability to hold together.
Indeed, Hadi faltered right from the start in crafting alliances that could have been avoided had he embraced a neutral stance. Meanwhile, Saleh relinquished the reform movement, considering it a spent force, and instead formed a fresh alliance with the Houthis, who played the game by their own set of rules. This alliance met its demise with his death in December 2017.
The actions taken by the president, in conjunction with all international measures, have not proven successful in resolving Yemen's issues or preventing its descent into multiple complex structural crises, nor have they managed to halt the ongoing war.
The Difficult Descent
Following the Houthi takeover of Sanaa, the shepherds of the Gulf Initiative appeared surprised by the rapid escalation of events and their slide into this difficult descent. It was only a matter of time before resorting to the UN Security Council with a complaint that the Houthis and Saleh were threatening the settlement in the country. The Council then issued Resolution 2140 on November 7, 2014. According to the resolution, anyone involved in obstructing or undermining the success of the political transition process, as outlined in the Gulf Cooperation Council Initiative and the agreement on its implementation mechanism, or impeding the implementation of the results reached in the final report of the comprehensive National Dialogue Conference through acts of violence, attacking infrastructure, planning actions violating international human rights law or international humanitarian law, committing human rights violations, directing or carrying out such acts in Yemen, would be added to the sanctions list prepared by the committee established under this resolution.
In line with this, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abdul-Khaliq al-Houthi, and Abu Ali Hakim, placing them at the top of that list because "they undermine peace in this country suffering from chronic instability." The sanctions include asset freezes and travel bans. In 2015, the Gulf states, through Jordan, submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, who "played a leading role in facilitating the Houthi military expansion and engaged in actions threatening peace, security, or stability in Yemen," and Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the Houthis. This was done through Resolution 2216 of 2015, which not only imposed sanctions but also placed the entire country under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.
The sanctions imposed included asset freezes and travel restrictions. In 2015, the Gulf states, with Jordan's support, presented a draft resolution to the UN Security Council to impose sanctions on Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, who played a key role in facilitating the Houthi military expansion and engaging in activities that jeopardized peace, security, and stability in Yemen. Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the Houthi leader, was also targeted by Resolution 2216 of 2015, which not only enforced sanctions but also placed the entire country under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.
Nevertheless, the measures undertaken by the president, in conjunction with international efforts, have fallen short of resolving Yemen's challenges, preventing its slide into complex structural crises, or halting the ongoing war, instead, they may have exacerbated the situation further.
A Push for Relief
During the tumultuous period from April to June 2024, a sudden surge in activism emerged, calling for the removal of the former president and his son from the sanctions list. Ahmed Ali took the initiative to correspond with the Security Council on this matter, accusing the "legitimacy" of neglecting his situation despite his acknowledgment of its authority. In a significant development, the Presidential Council unanimously passed a resolution tasking the government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs with formally appealing to the Security Council for the lifting of sanctions on the former president and his son. Reports indicated that this decision garnered support from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
On July 30, 2024, a significant development took place as the United Nations website released a press statement announcing the removal of Saleh and his son from the sanctions list by the Security Council committee, in line with Resolution 2140 (2014). This decision marked a pivotal moment in the ongoing Yemeni conflict. The Middle East newspaper, in its August 1, 2024 issue, highlighted that this decision was a result of concerted efforts by the Yemeni presidency, with the valuable support of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Despite appearing contradictory to previous stances, this decision subtly underscored the recognition of the limitations of the military strategies pursued by the coalition since the conflict's inception. It signified a shift towards a more diplomatic and inclusive approach to address the complex Yemeni crisis. Both countries acknowledged the urgent need for peace and emphasized the importance of comprehensive, multi-sectoral actions across political, economic, social, and developmental dimensions to effectively resolve the deep-rooted challenges in Yemen. This marked a departure from the traditional constraints of the "three references," signaling a new chapter in the quest for lasting peace in the region.
Other powers have started to express apprehension over the potential implications of Ahmed Ali's actions, which have the ability to sway their positions on the ground which are undeniably justified concerns.
The Unexpected Timing
With all the background information, the removal of Ahmed Ali and his father from the sanctions list was not surprising, but it was the timing that caught observers off guard. The UN decision itself had long been deemed ineffective in addressing the crisis. Many voices had emerged years ago calling for the need to move beyond the three references to deal with the Yemeni crisis and explore suitable alternatives, especially as negotiations began between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
By lifting Ahmed Ali from the sanctions list, his arena has been cleared, allowing him the freedom to move and engage in various political and military activities. It is possible that a coordinated vision for the tasks assigned to him had already been established, indicating that the lifting of sanctions was not merely a pure gift or a humanitarian gesture. The crucial question that remains unanswered is the direction his mission will take. Will he be part of the conflicting April 7 team, or will he form a new political axis around which fragile entities similar to existing ones will revolve?
Numerous shifts have emerged following the announcement of the lifting of sanctions on Ahmed Ali, the son of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The number of well-wishers, flatterers, and sycophants has significantly increased. Some have extended their congratulations and praise based on political considerations that obscure more than they reveal, while others have acted out of opportunism and self-interest (offering services and superficial loyalty). On the other hand, other factions have grown wary of the potential repercussions of the man's actions, which could impact their positions on the ground, and these concerns are undoubtedly justified.
In theory, Ahmed Ali has a plethora of options at his disposal, all contingent on the extent of freedom he commands on the political landscape. These choices, for the most part, tend to converge towards predetermined outcomes that have been well-documented over the past decades.
One such option, for instance, involves the endeavor to piece together the scattered remnants and echoes of the fragmented Conference Party members, realigning them according to the dynamics of past interests. However, this equation has proven to be disastrous not only for the nation but also for Saleh himself. With the slightest shake or a fierce storm, the epicenters of power within the conference scatter to other realms where new or old interests and forces converge. The entity itself becomes drifting isles here and there, rendering any reassembly unlikely to yield different results. Moreover, in my view, he lacks the finesse to tread the perilous path of dancing on the heads of snakes and playing with the "mice's den," as the public phrases it, without encountering an early sting. Such a game is a skill mastered solely by Saleh, and none other.
Before delving into his options, Ahmed Ali must clearly define the nature of his upcoming activities. Will he return to military action following the military customs he has been trained in, or will he engage in the political sphere?
A new entity
Creating a new political entity out of the remnants of the People's Congress party, grounded in pragmatic and nationally inclusive political ideals while learning from past experiences, could indeed be his most favorable option. However, the critical question remains: has he truly absorbed the lessons from past events to liberate himself from the confines of tribal dominance, especially after experiencing betrayals from tribal affiliations, the military, and influential figures nurtured by President Saleh during his rule? This is a complex and sensitive issue that requires careful consideration. If he chooses to pursue this path, the key challenge lies in establishing a strong core foundation amid the shadows of past failures in the realm of national politics. Navigating through a landscape rife with intricate power dynamics and uncertainties will demand astuteness and strategic vision. The ability to transcend the limitations of the past and pave the way for a more inclusive and promising political future will be a true test of his leadership and foresight. It is really imperative for him to clearly define the nature of his upcoming activities before delving into his options. Will he return to military work in a disciplined manner following the military customs he has learned, or will he engage in the political sphere? This, of course, unless the matter has already been decided by the one with the long arm in removing his name from the sanctions list. There is a prevailing suspicion among many that the "legitimacy" or the coalition could be the driving forces behind the proposal to lift the initial sanctions. Speculations also hint at the United States potentially playing a role in advancing this idea, with underlying motives that remain veiled in secrecy. One plausible theory suggests that this maneuver could be aimed at stirring up the crisis and reshuffling the deck of cards. The answers to these uncertainties shall unfold in due time, and tomorrow holds the promise of revealing the truth...
