Yemen is one of the countries that has been exposed to violent weather fluctuations in recent years which led to; delay in the rainy seasons which is accompanied by waves of drought, followed by unusually heavy rains that leave behind sudden floods that uproot everything and cause the death of dozens and the displacement of hundreds of families in different parts of the country. It is also devastatingly affecting ecosystems and infrastructure already destroyed by an eight-year of conflict.
In fact, effects of climate change have become an additional challenge that threatens livelihoods, food and water security in a country that suffers from a scarcity of basic necessities. But why is there a change in the climate that we are used to? How does this change affect the world in general, and Yemen in particular?
Why does the Earth's climate change?
Climate change refers to a long-term shift in temperatures and weather patterns witnessed by the planet, as the Earth, by its nature and throughout its history, has volatile climates; Ice ages come and clear to replace warm ages like the one we currently live in, and sometimes global warming ages may come, like the one we are about to experience.
These changes are successive through a climate cycle that lasts 110,000 years, and it is called the Milankovitch cycle, after the Serbian climatologist Miltin Milankovitch (died in 1958 AD). After Milankovitch discovered the Earth's polarization system; which means the level of exposure to sunlight, he was able to identify the climatic characteristics of our planet by understanding the essential relationship between the climate and the proximity of the earth and its distance from the sun every hundred years and a little more, as well as the reversal in the axis of inclination of the planet every 41 thousand years. When the angle of inclination of the Earth’s axis becomes 22 degrees, eras of global warming will occur with a temperature of more than 2.0 degrees Celsius, while ice ages will come with a temperature of less than 0.0 Celsius only with the angle of inclination of the earth’s axis reaching 24 degrees and between these degrees, whether in the tilt of the earth's axis and in the temperature, are the ages of warmth.
This equation explained the changes in the Earth's climate, from heating to cooling, which is a regular sequence unless there is an intervention from an external factor that restores warmth or leads towards global warming and an era of heating, such as the fall of a meteorite, the explosion of a giant volcano, or the increase in the rate of human industries, which cause the emission of large amounts of atmospheric greenhouse gases, such as methane and carbon dioxide, emitted from volcanoes, livestock dung, factories, automobiles and other fossil-fuel-consuming industries.
The accumulation of these gases in large quantities in the atmosphere prevents the reflection of heat and its exit from the Earth into space, which leads to global warming and heating of the Earth’s atmosphere. In the event that greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere in small quantities, this may lead to a warming of the planet's atmosphere when it begins to lose warmth towards cooling, thus saving the Earth from entering a harsh ice age.
But if huge and continuous amounts of greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, this inevitably leads to global warming and an era of devastating warming.
Climate change in recent years has led to a significant rise in temperatures and severe fluctuations in rainy seasons, as well as torrential rains and floods.
11 thousand years ago, the angle of the Earth's axis began to tilt towards less than 24 degrees, thus marking the end of the last ice age witnessed by man and the beginning of the era of warmth that we are still living in. The angle of our planet's axis is currently tilted by 23.4 degrees, and it tilts more slowly as time progresses until its tilt angle reaches 22 degrees, then it starts tilting backwards again.
That is, we are supposed to be close to a new ice age that Humankind barely managed to survive the last ice age (31 to 12 thousand years ago), which caused the extinction of many major species and animals, especially large animals such as mammoths.
However, what happened was the accumulation of greenhouse gases resulting from human industry, which led to a warming of the Earth's atmosphere. Until the middle of the nineteenth century, the global climate was moving towards cooling with a low temperature of 0.2 degrees Celsius, then the industrial revolution came with the innovation of engines and unclean industries.
During a century and a half of that time, the build-up of greenhouse gases from dirty industry has turned the climatic clock (the Milankovitch cycle) in an opposite direction towards excessively high, and the planet's climate is heading for accelerated warming rather than cooling.
It is true that the accumulation of greenhouse gases saved our world from freezing and brought it back to warmth, but the continued emission of these gases leads our world to heat up, gradually turning it into an unbearable hell.
The proportion of these gases in the atmosphere has doubled in recent decades, and thus the planet's atmosphere has risen to 2.0°C in 2020. This has caused widespread exacerbation of forest fires, and a shrinking of marine and terrestrial habitats and drinking water. In this way, during the next hundred years, more green and agricultural areas will shrink, and most of the areas on Earth will gradually turn into a barren desert with a deadly temperature of about 10.0 degrees, which is a deadly hell, which will cause half of the planet's population to migrate to the polar regions.
What are the effects of climate change on Yemen?
Global climate change leads to radical and varied reversals in the climates of different regions of the world as well, depending on the environment of each region, its location, its height above sea level, and its proximity to water bodies and air currents. These changes occur in temperature, humidity level, monsoon currents and precipitation rates.
For example, during the last Ice Age (110 to 10,000 years ago) the Sahara Desert we know today was not exist, as that region was covered in rainforests and tropical environments. The ancient periods of warming that occurred between the years (113-115) thousand BC and the years (84-86) thousand years BC, as well as between 11 and 6 thousand BC, led to radical climatic changes in Yemen, turning it into a humid environment with high rates of continuous rain throughout the year, what made Yemen during those ancient times green and flooded with many lakes and rivers.
Yemen today is almost dry country that is agriculturally insufficient and suffers from severe water scarcity, and has a long history of dependence on food assistance. Moreover, climate change in recent years has led to a significant rise in temperatures, severe fluctuations in rainfall dates, as well as torrential rains and floods.
According to a study published in 2009, it expected the possibility of an increase in precipitation rates in Yemen during the coming decades as a result of the exacerbation of global warming, with an annual increase of more than 306 millimeters per year. Over the past three years, violent torrents and landslides due to heavy rains have killed hundreds in Yemen, and heavy the rains have led to the filling of the Mareb Dam reservoir for the first time in its history.
These are real indicators of the level of fluctuations in the rate of precipitation and the resulting expansion of the areas affected by the floods, in addition to the violent hurricanes that have become a real threat to the Yemeni coasts and islands.
Since 2015, six rare hurricanes have hit Yemen, most notably Cyclone Chapala, the fourth strongest hurricane recorded throughout the history of the Arabian Sea and the northern Indian Ocean, which is the first time in recorded history that Indian Ocean hurricanes have been able to reach Yemen.
It is believed that the violent and unusual weather fluctuations are just the beginning of the wild impacts of climate change, which are getting more extreme with time. Scientists expect that it will threaten the agricultural seasons, food and water security, and ecosystems in Yemen, which has been experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world for years.
Why should we reduce climatic changes?
There is no doubt that a warm climate is suitable for human survival and natural diversity and their prosperity. Complex human societies arose and human life evolved and improved in quality during this warm period that began with the end of the last ice age 12,000 years ago. Therefore, avoiding the loss of the current climate is crucial for humanity, by curbing any likely temperature rise of more than 2.0°C, or any potential drop of 0.0°C. Ice ages and warming lead to successive famines and environmental disasters, collapses of ecosystems and vitals, and thus the extinction of many species and organisms. Four of the five major extinctions that occurred on the planet over hundreds of millions of years were due to climate changes. Ice ages or global warming are not the only causes of environmental disasters, as they are also caused by weather disturbances associated with the climate change process.
Dozens of people die every year in Yemen due to the exacerbation effects of climate change. With the passage of time, the misunderstanding of the climate problem with the failure to find solutions means a continuation of the heightening of the catastrophic situation of the environment, and thus the increasing severity of droughts, floods and hurricanes, and a complete exhaustion of the population's ability to adapt and endure.
